Timing is important in real estate, but not in the way you might think.
For more than 20 years, I've been helping people make decisions about buying a home. Here's what I've learned. It's not always best to buy when prices are at their lowest or when inventory is at its highest. It's when your money is in good shape, your job is stable, and the market is in line with what you really need in a home.
That being said, there are definitely seasonal patterns, and it's important to know about them. Data from the National Association of REALTORS® shows that home prices in June 2025 were about 16% higher than they were from December to February. During the busiest summer months, more than 18,000 homes change hands every day. But here's the thing: those numbers don't tell the whole story.
In 2025, the housing market was very different than what it was just two years ago. The average age of first-time home buyers is now 40, which is almost ten years older than the average age of people who bought their first home in the past. Mortgage rates are around 6.2% even though they are lower than they were in 2023–2024, when they were above 7%. In the fall of 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates twice, and once in December, which helped a little, but no one thinks rates will go back to the 3% levels they were at during the pandemic.
This guide tells you everything you need to know about buying a house in 2026. We'll look at seasonal patterns, what's going on in the market right now, mortgage rate trends, and most importantly, how to tell if you're ready. If you're a first-time buyer saving for a down payment or a repeat buyer with equity to use, knowing these things will help you make smart choices instead of just following general advice.
First, let's talk about how each season affects your homebuying experience. Then we'll talk about the financial readiness factors that are even more important.
The housing market follows predictable seasonal patterns, but 2026 will be different in some interesting ways.
Spring is usually the start of the busiest time of year for buying a home, and for good reason. Sellers and buyers come out in droves when the weather gets warmer. Families want to get things in order before school starts. In the spring, trees bloom, grass gets greener, and honestly, houses look better than they do in the harsh light of winter.
The National Association of REALTORS® says that there is a lot of activity in the housing market from April to June, with June being the busiest month of the year. During these months, more than 16,500 homes that are already built sell every day in the US.
But being popular has a cost. It becomes common to get more than one offer. People start bidding wars over properties that are in high demand. There are a lot of backup offers. Sellers set high prices because they know there is demand. If you want to buy in the spring of 2026, get ready to make your best offer right away and move quickly.
In the spring, real estate agents also have a lot to do. Your agent might have ten other clients to deal with at the same time. You have to book home inspectors weeks in advance. Appraisers have a lot of work to do. The closing process can take longer than expected because everyone involved is busy with a lot of work.
To buy something in the spring, you need to be both patient and quick to make a decision. You need to be patient and wait for the right property in a very competitive market. Be ready to act quickly when you find it. I have to admit that it's not easy to find a balance.
Early summer keeps the momentum going from spring. June is the busiest month, with more than 18,000 homes sold every day across the country. According to NAR seasonal data, prices are usually 16% higher than they were in the winter.
But if you can wait a little longer, summer is a good time to make a move. Demand usually starts to drop off in late August. Families who needed to move before school started have already done so. Sellers who put their homes up for sale in the spring and haven't sold yet start to worry. This anxiety turns into chances to negotiate right away.
During the summer, location is more important than in other seasons. In July and August, Florida's heat and humidity make house hunting awful. People who want to buy in Florida often wait for the weather to get better. In the meantime, the weather in the northern states is nice, which is great for property tours and inspections.
If you can wait until late August or early September to buy something, I always tell clients who are thinking about buying something in the summer. Sellers who have seen their homes sit through the busiest time of year are often more willing to negotiate on price, closing costs, and contingencies. That property that isn't selling might not have any major issues at all. It's possible that a buyer changed their mind. Maybe the timing wasn't right. Homes that don't sell during the spring and summer prime time can be worth a lot, no matter what.
If you need to sell your current home in order to buy a new one, summer is the best time to do both at the same time. High buyer activity means that your property should get a lot of attention, which could make it easier for you to coordinate the closings of your sale and purchase.
Honestly, fall is my favorite time of year for buyers. Things slow down after Labor Day. The competition gets easier. Sellers who have been patient all summer start to feel real pressure to close before the holidays.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, housing activity drops about 2% from its summer highs during the months of July to September. By October, sellers are much more motivated. They want to keep their property through Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's. That possibility alone makes people lower prices and be more flexible with terms.
According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median days on market in the US is about 62 days as of mid-2025. But homes that are listed in October tend to sell faster because serious buyers and motivated sellers can find each other more easily. People who put their homes up for sale in the fall usually have good reasons, like needing money, moving for work, or settling an estate. They're not just testing the waters of the market.
In the fall, the quality of neighborhood assessments matters less. You won't see flowers in the spring or green in the summer. That's actually helpful because you look at the property itself without seasonal changes that make it look better hiding possible problems.
Without a doubt, winter is the cheapest time to buy. Prices reached their lowest point of the year. National data shows that listings from December to February are usually 16% lower than listings from June. Sellers who are active during the holidays really want to sell, so they are more willing to work with you on terms than at any other time of year.
Sellers who are motivated in the winter aren't in a hurry. They make sense. Maybe they took a job in a different city that starts in January. Maybe they're moving to a smaller place after they retire. No matter what the reason, winter sellers don't usually play hardball. They'll include appliances, pay closing costs, or lower the price to make deals happen.
During the winter, real estate agents are also more available. Lenders look at fewer applications. Faster underwriting. Inspectors' schedules are flexible. In the summer, closings can take 45 to 60 days, but in the winter, they can happen in 30 to 35 days.
But buying in the winter does come with some real problems that you need to be aware of:
Even with these problems, winter is still a good time for some buyers. If you need a place to live right away because you're moving for work, there is still winter inventory in most markets. You'll find opportunities if you're open to different types of property and locations. If having 20 properties to choose from isn't as important as having more negotiating power and lower prices, winter is the best time for that.
Winter buyers will find that AmeriSave's online mortgage process is especially helpful. You can start your preapproval process from home, so you don't have to go out in the cold for in-person meetings. You can use our digital tools to compare mortgage options, lock in rates, and send in documents from anywhere. This is great when winter storms make travel hard or dangerous.
Understanding seasonal patterns helps, but 2026's specific market dynamics matter more for your actual purchase decision.
Mortgage rates in November 2025 averaged around 6.2% for 30-year fixed loans, according to recent Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey data. That's down from the 7% range we saw earlier in 2025 and well below the October 2023 peak of 7.08%.
The Federal Reserve made three rate cuts in 2025—one September, October, and December. Each cut totaled 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a 3.75-4.00% range. These cuts helped push mortgage rates down from mid-year highs, though the relationship between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rates isn't always straightforward or immediate.
Here's what matters for your timing decision. Mortgage rates above 6% create different affordability dynamics than the 3-4% rates buyers enjoyed during 2020-2021. Consider a $400,000 home purchase scenario:
This means you're paying substantially more over the life of a 30-year mortgage compared to pandemic-era borrowers. However, waiting indefinitely for lower rates might mean missing homes while prices continue rising. The Federal Reserve indicated it's in no rush to cut rates further, especially with inflation concerns persisting.
AmeriSave offers various mortgage products that can help manage rate concerns. Fixed-rate mortgages lock your rate for the loan term, protecting against future increases. If you believe rates will decrease in coming years, an adjustable-rate mortgage might make sense for short-term ownership before refinancing later.
Housing inventory in mid-2025 reached 1.55 million units nationally according to Department of Housing and Urban Development data. That represents a 15.7% increase from July 2024 but remains well below pre-pandemic norms that most of us remember.
Limited inventory affects timing in several ways that buyers need to understand. Fewer homes mean less negotiating power even in traditionally slower seasons. Multiple-offer situations can arise even during winter in markets with severe supply constraints. Properties priced competitively sell quickly regardless of season.
The inventory shortage stems partly from homeowners staying put longer. The NAR reports homeowners now remain in properties an average of 11 years, up from historical norms of 7-8 years. Many locked in low mortgage rates during 2020-2021 and understandably don't want to give them up by moving. This "lock-in effect" constrains supply across all price ranges.
First-time buyers face particularly acute inventory challenges. Starter homes in the $200,000-$350,000 range remain scarce in most markets. Builders have focused on higher-end construction where profit margins are better. This pushes first-time buyers into competition for older properties or forces them to consider new construction at premium prices.
Your timing strategy should account for local inventory conditions. If your target market shows increasing listings, waiting might bring more options worth considering. If inventory remains tight with no signs of improvement, acting when you find suitable properties makes sense regardless of season.
National median existing home prices in September 2025 reached $415,200, a record high for the month according to NAR data. Prices increased 4.8% year-over-year for 19 consecutive months through early 2025. On the whole, however, home prices were relatively stable by the end of 2025.
This persistent appreciation creates real timing pressure. Waiting for significant price drops might mean waiting indefinitely in many markets. Some metros see prices stabilize or dip slightly, but nationwide trends show continued upward movement.
However, appreciation rates vary significantly by location and season. June prices typically run 16% higher than December-February pricing within the same year. This seasonal variance can offset some annual appreciation if you time purchases strategically.
For perspective on the bigger picture: the median home price was $317,100 in Q2 2020 according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data. By Q1 2025, it reached $416,900—nearly $100,000 increase in five years. Prices peaked at $442,600 in Q4 2022 before moderating slightly.
What does this mean for your timing? Waiting for major price corrections seems unlikely without a recession or significant economic disruption. Seasonal price variations (winter lows versus summer highs) offer more realistic savings opportunities. Focus on your local market's specific trends rather than national averages when making decisions.
First-time home buyers face unprecedented obstacles in 2026. The median age of first-time buyers hit 40 years old, an all-time high according to NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. That's up from the late 20s in the 1980s and represents a dramatic shift in homeownership accessibility that concerns policymakers.
First-timers now comprise just 21% of all home buyers, down from a historical norm around 40% before 2008. This represents a 50% contraction in first-time buyer market share over roughly 15 years. This is a troubling trend for market health.
The median income for first-time buyers increased to approximately $95,900, reflecting the reality that only higher earners can currently afford entry into the market. A 10-year delay in homeownership can cost roughly $150,000 in lost equity accumulation on a typical starter home according to NAR estimates. This represents a staggering wealth-building disadvantage.
If you're a first-time buyer trying to determine timing, focus less on finding the "perfect" seasonal window and more on achieving financial readiness. Once you have stable employment, manageable debt, and adequate down payment savings, seasonal timing becomes a secondary optimization rather than the primary concern.
AmeriSave offers several products designed specifically for first-time buyers. FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5% with credit scores of 580 or higher. Conventional loans with as little as 3% down may be available for qualified buyers. VA loans require zero down payment for eligible military members and veterans.
National trends provide useful context, but local market dynamics determine your actual experience. What works in Phoenix doesn't necessarily apply in Portland.
Geography influences optimal buying seasons significantly, more than most people realize. Southwestern cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Tucson see active winter markets thanks to mild temperatures and an influx of snowbird buyers. Summer heat there can actually slow activity as temperatures exceed 110°F regularly.
Northern markets follow more traditional seasonal patterns. Spring and summer offer ideal weather for property tours and moving logistics. Winter brings snow, ice, and short daylight hours that complicate both home shopping and inspections.
Coastal markets deal with specific weather considerations. Hurricane season (June through November) affects Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastal markets significantly. Buyers there might prefer winter and early spring to avoid storm concerns during inspection and closing periods.
Consider your target location's weather patterns when planning purchase timing. If you're relocating to an unfamiliar climate zone, research local seasonal rhythms rather than assuming your current market's patterns will apply.
Some metros remain intensely competitive regardless of season. Markets with strong job growth, limited land availability, or highly desirable lifestyle factors maintain seller advantages year-round.
In hot markets, seasonal timing matters significantly less than other factors. Competition exists whether you buy in February or June. Your strategy should emphasize financial preparation and decisiveness rather than seasonal optimization.
Cooling markets show different characteristics worth recognizing:
Cooling markets reward patience and strong negotiation. Seasonal timing can enhance already favorable buyer conditions. Winter purchases in cooling markets might yield exceptional deals as motivated sellers face thin buyer pools.
Most markets in 2026 fall somewhere between these extremes. Check local real estate data through your agent or online resources to assess your specific market's temperature before determining optimal timing strategies.
Property location type influences both timing and overall strategy:
Urban markets tend to show less dramatic seasonal variation. City buyers and sellers operate year-round on work and life schedules less tied to school calendars. Inventory and competition remain relatively stable across seasons in major metro cores.
Suburban markets follow the strongest seasonal patterns. Families dominate suburban buying, and school schedules heavily influence their timing. Expect pronounced spring surges and winter slowdowns in suburban areas.
Rural markets can be unpredictable with their own rhythms. Limited inventory means a few listings or sales can swing market dynamics significantly. Seasonal agricultural cycles might influence local economies and therefore real estate activity. Rural properties also require more careful seasonal evaluation—that charming country home might look perfect in summer but become essentially inaccessible during winter.
Your location preference should factor into timing decisions. Suburban buyers might wait for fall when competition eases substantially. Urban buyers might find less seasonal advantage and should focus more on broader market conditions and personal readiness.
Here's what I tell every buyer I work with. Seasonal timing is an optimization tactic. Financial readiness is the foundation. You can't optimize your way around inadequate finances, but you can buy in any season once your money situation is truly solid.
Your credit score directly impacts mortgage rates and approval odds. In 2026's rate environment, every fraction of a percentage point on your mortgage rate matters financially over 30 years.
Before you start looking for a house, take the time to look over your credit reports from all three bureaus: Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. If you find mistakes, dispute them. Pay off your high credit card balances in a smart way. Don't open new credit accounts in the six to twelve months before you apply. These things can really help your score go up in just a few months.
The debt-to-income ratio is also very important for getting a loan. Lenders figure this out by dividing your total monthly debt payments by your gross monthly income. Most regular loans need a DTI of less than 43%. With strong compensating factors, FHA loans might let you borrow up to 50%.
If your DTI is higher than what lenders will accept, you should pay off your debts before you start looking for a house. Getting rid of small debts completely will help your ratio. Make bigger payments on accounts with high balances. Before you apply for a mortgage, think about whether you could put off paying your car payment or pay off your student loans quickly. These financial improvements matter far more than whether you buy in March versus October.
First-time home buyers in 2025 averaged 10% down payments according to NAR data. That's approximately $41,500 on the median first-time buyer purchase price. Repeat buyers averaged 23% down, often using equity from previous home sales.
Closing costs typically add 2-5% of purchase price on top of your down payment. On a $415,000 home, expect $8,300-$20,750 in closing costs beyond your down payment. These cover appraisal, title insurance, loan origination, escrow setup, and various administrative fees.
Total cash needed at purchase for a first-time buyer scenario:
This is one reason why the average age of first-time buyers is now 40. For most people who make the median income, it takes years to save up $50,000 or more while paying rent, student loans, and living expenses.
There are programs all over the country that help people with their down payments, but many buyers don't know about them. Down Payment Resource says that there are more than 2,200 of these programs in all 50 states. Most people get $18,000, but some people get $100,000 or more by combining several programs in a smart way. It's surprising that only 15% of FHA borrowers who qualify for down payment assistance actually use it, even though 80% of them do.
Before you assume you can't afford to buy a home, look into state and local down payment assistance. AmeriSave loan officers can help you find programs you might be able to use based on your income, where you live, and whether you are a buyer.
Lenders scrutinize employment history carefully during underwriting. They want to see:
If you're considering job changes, timing matters relative to home purchases. Starting a new job mid-mortgage-application complicates approval significantly. Lenders prefer you stay put or wait until you've completed probationary periods at new employers before applying.
Self-employed buyers have to go through more checks than W-2 employees do. Most lenders want to see two years' worth of tax returns that show steady income. Instead of using your highest year, they might average your income over several years. Business costs that lower taxable income also lower qualifying income for mortgages, which is a frustrating catch-22.
It is also important to keep good records of income that comes from commissions. Lenders look at how much commission they make over time to figure out what levels of income are sustainable. If you made a lot of money in one year but not in previous years, that year won't qualify you for a mortgage based on that peak income.
People who work in the gig economy or as independent contractors should be ready for problems. Getting a mortgage is much easier with a traditional W-2 job. Alternative income sources need more paperwork and may be looked at with suspicion by conservative underwriters.
Before you start looking for a house, get preapproved for a mortgage. Preapproval means that lenders look at your credit, income, assets, and debts to see how much money you can borrow. This is different from prequalification, which is just a less strict guess.
Most of AmeriSave's preapproval process happens online. You will send us pay stubs, tax returns, bank statements, and information about your job through our safe platform. We carefully check these papers and send you a preapproval letter that tells you how much you can borrow. Sellers and agents pay a lot more attention to buyers who have strong preapproval letters than to those who don't.
Homeownership brings ongoing costs beyond your mortgage payment that many first-time buyers underestimate:
Add these costs to your mortgage payment to determine true housing expense. Lenders typically cap total housing costs at 28% of gross income, though this varies by loan program and compensating factors.
Beyond housing costs, maintain adequate reserves. Lenders may require 2-6 months of housing payments in savings after closing. This money sits as a safety cushion against job loss, unexpected repairs, or other financial shocks.
Avoid becoming "house poor"—spending so much on housing that other financial goals suffer significantly. You still need emergency funds, retirement savings contributions, and money for basic lifestyle expenses. Stretching to your maximum approved loan amount often creates debilitating financial stress.
Consider your five-year plans realistically. Will you likely stay in this home five years or longer? Transaction costs of buying and selling homes (agent commissions, closing costs, moving expenses) typically require 3-5 years of appreciation just to break even financially. Buying when you plan to move in 2-3 years often loses money after all costs are considered.
Different buyer profiles should approach timing decisions quite differently based on their circumstances.
If you're buying your first home in 2026, follow these guidelines:
Focus on financial preparation first. Get your credit score above 700 if possible. Save 10-15% of estimated purchase price for down payment and closing costs combined. Reduce high-interest debts aggressively. Build 3-6 months emergency fund separate from down payment savings.
Research loan programs extensively. FHA, VA, USDA, and conventional low-down-payment programs each have distinct requirements and benefits. Talk to multiple lenders including AmeriSave to understand your options fully.
Consider fall or winter purchases if your financial readiness aligns with those seasons. Lower prices and less competition benefit first-timers who often get outbid in spring-summer feeding frenzies.
Don't wait for perfect conditions that may never come. Mortgage rates might decrease slightly but are unlikely to return to pandemic lows. Home prices continue appreciating in most markets. Waiting indefinitely means paying more in rent while home equity opportunity costs accumulate.
Get comfortable with starter homes. Your first home doesn't need to be your forever home. Buy what you can afford now. Build equity for 5-7 years. Then upgrade using accumulated equity for a larger down payment on your ideal property later.
Leverage your existing equity strategically. The median repeat buyer in 2026 makes a 23% down payment, often sourced from previous home sale proceeds. This equity gives you significant advantages over first-time buyers in competitive situations.
Consider timing current home sale with new purchase carefully. Summer's high activity levels help sell your property quickly, allowing coordinated closings. Winter sales might drag, forcing you to carry two mortgages or lose your desired purchase property.
Evaluate porting your mortgage if your current lender offers this option. Porting lets you transfer existing mortgage terms to a new property, potentially keeping a lower interest rate from previous years.
Account for capital gains taxes if your current home appreciated significantly. You can exclude up to $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (married) in capital gains if you lived in the home two of the last five years. Timing your sale within this window optimizes tax treatment.
Don't automatically assume you need to sell first. In low-inventory markets, making non-contingent offers (not dependent on selling current home) gives you competitive advantages. Bridge loans or home equity lines can provide down payment funds temporarily if needed.
You hold significant negotiating power in any season. All-cash offers close faster, have fewer failure points, and appeal strongly to sellers. In 2025's market with 26% cash purchases per NAR data, you're part of an advantageous buyer group.
Consider buying off-season (fall-winter) to maximize price negotiation when fewer competing cash buyers hunt properties actively.
Don't let cash-buyer status blind you to value. Just because you can pay asking price doesn't mean you should without question. Negotiate based on comparative sales, inspection findings, and market conditions regardless of your financing method.
Factor opportunity costs of tying capital in real estate versus other investments. With mortgage rates around 6%, you might generate better returns elsewhere if you could earn 7-8%+ in diversified investments. Leverage (using a mortgage) sometimes makes financial sense even with available cash.
If you're purchasing investment property or a vacation home:
Tax implications matter more than for primary residences. Investment property income is taxable. You can deduct expenses like mortgage interest, property taxes, maintenance, and depreciation. Consult tax professionals before purchasing to understand full implications.
Financing requirements differ from primary residences. Investment property loans typically require larger down payments (20-25%) and carry higher interest rates than primary residence mortgages. Plan for these additional costs carefully.
Seasonal rental demand affects investment property timing. Buying near colleges before fall semester or vacation properties before summer season can generate immediate rental income.
Market cycles impact returns more than seasonality for investment properties. If you're investing for long-term appreciation and rental income, buying during temporary market softness (even if that's summer) might outperform waiting for winter's lower prices if the market is strengthening rapidly.
Different mortgage products fit different timing scenarios and buyer profiles effectively.
Fixed-rate mortgages lock your interest rate for the entire loan term, typically 15 or 30 years. In November 2025's 6.2-6.3% rate environment, fixed-rate mortgages offer payment predictability against potential future rate increases.
Best for: Buyers planning to stay in homes 5+ years; buyers wanting budget certainty; buyers concerned rates might rise further
Timing consideration: If you believe rates will decrease significantly in 1-2 years, you might refinance later. However, betting on future rate drops means potentially missing purchase opportunities now while prices continue rising.
ARMs start with lower initial rates that adjust periodically based on market indices. A 5/1 ARM, for example, fixes the rate for five years then adjusts annually thereafter.
Best for: Buyers planning shorter homeownership periods; buyers expecting income increases; buyers when ARM rates significantly undercut fixed rates
Timing consideration: In late 2025, the spread between ARM and fixed rates has narrowed considerably. ARMs make most sense if you're highly confident about moving before the adjustment period begins.
FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5% with more flexible credit requirements than conventional loans. They require both upfront (1.75%) and annual mortgage insurance premiums.
Best for: First-time buyers with limited savings; buyers with credit scores 580-680; buyers who can't reach conventional loan down payment requirements
Timing consideration: FHA's flexibility helps buyers enter the market sooner rather than waiting years to save conventional down payments. This earlier entry captures appreciation and equity building opportunities.
VA loans require zero down payment for eligible veterans, active military, and surviving spouses. They don't require mortgage insurance and typically offer competitive interest rates.
Best for: Eligible military members and veterans; buyers wanting to preserve savings for renovations or reserves
Timing consideration: Zero down payment means VA buyers can enter the market almost immediately once income and credit qualify. Don't let down payment savings delay your purchase if you're VA-eligible.
Conventional loans conform to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac standards. They offer 3-20% down payment options depending on programs, with mortgage insurance required below 20% down.
Best for: Buyers with good credit (700+); buyers with adequate savings; buyers purchasing properties outside FHA loan limits
Timing consideration: Conventional loans provide the most flexibility and best rates for well-qualified buyers. If you can meet conventional requirements, you'll have advantages in competitive markets over buyers using alternative programs.
AmeriSave's online platform lets you explore all these options simultaneously, compare rates side-by-side, and choose the product that fits your timing strategy and financial situation best. Our digital tools streamline the application and approval process—particularly helpful in fast-moving spring and summer markets where speed matters significantly.
So when should you actually buy a house in 2026? Here's my framework for deciding based on experience.
Before worrying about seasonal timing at all, honestly assess your readiness across these three dimensions:
Financial Readiness
Life Readiness
Market Knowledge
If you're solid across all three dimensions, seasonal timing becomes your optimization variable. If gaps exist in any dimension, focus on closing those gaps before buying regardless of season.
Once you're ready financially and personally, use this framework:
When is the best time to buy a house in 2026? It depends on the state of the market, the time of year, and your own situation. Data clearly shows that prices go up in June and down in the winter, but those seasonal trends are less important than your financial readiness and the way the local market works.
There are both problems and chances in the current market conditions that you should be aware of. Mortgage rates are still high at around 6.2%, but they have gone down from their highest levels of over 7% in 2023 and 2024. First-time buyers are facing problems that have never happened before, with the median age rising to 40 and the market share falling to just 21%. But the number of homes for sale is slowly going up, and sellers are becoming more flexible, especially in the fall and winter.
First-time buyers should put all of their energy into getting their finances in order. Make sure you have good credit, save up for the down payment and closing costs, and do a lot of research on loan programs like FHA, VA, and conventional low-down-payment options. Don't let seasonal optimization stop you from buying when you're ready, but if you can be flexible with your schedule, think about buying in the fall or winter.
People who buy homes again can use the equity in their current homes to their advantage at any time of year. However, selling a home and buying a new one in the spring or summer is easier to coordinate. Cash buyers can negotiate all year long, but they should still carefully consider the value instead of just assuming that being able to pay extra is enough.
Keep in mind that seasonal timing is a way to improve things, not a must-have. The basics are much more important: having enough money, a steady job, enough savings, and realistic ideas about what it means to own a home. The seasons and markets will always change. No matter when you buy a home, whether it's in January or July, your personal readiness is the most important thing.
If you're ready to look into your mortgage options, AmeriSave's online platform lets you compare rates, figure out your payments accurately, and start the preapproval process from home. Our loan officers can help you figure out which mortgage products are best for your financial situation and timing strategy. You should start looking for a home when you're ready, both personally and financially, not just when the calendar says it's the best time of year.
According to seasonal data from the National Association of REALTORS®, home prices are usually lowest from December to February, when they are 16% lower than the peak prices in June. January is the month with the lowest average listing prices across the country. But there isn't a lot of winter inventory, which means there aren't as many homes to choose from. You need to think carefully about the tradeoff between saving money and having more options based on your must-have features and how flexible you are. In the winter, if you can find a property that meets your needs, you will probably be able to negotiate better terms than in any other season. But if you have specific needs or want certain features, the fact that there aren't many homes for sale in the winter might mean you have to wait until spring when more homes go on the market.
When is a good time to buy? It depends more on your own finances than on the market alone. Right now, mortgage rates are around 6.2%, which is high but getting better from the highs of 2024. Inventory is growing, giving buyers more options than in recent years, and prices are still going up in most markets. First-time buyers are having a hard time finding homes they can afford because the median age is now 40. But if you wait forever, you'll miss chances to build equity, which is how people get rich over time. If you have a stable job, enough savings, and good credit, 2026 can be a good year to buy a home, even though the market isn't perfect. The most important thing is to buy when you can afford it, not to try to guess when the market will hit rock bottom.
There are big opportunity costs to think about when you wait for rates to go down. The Federal Reserve lowered rates in the fall of 2025, but they probably won't go back to the 2-3% pandemic lows anytime soon. You're paying rent instead of building equity in your home every month you wait. In most markets, home prices keep going up, which could make up for any savings you might get by waiting months or years. You can also refinance later if rates go down a lot, but you can't get back years of time spent building equity. Instead of trying to time the bottom of interest rates perfectly, focus on buying when you're ready. But if rates are clearly going down quickly and you have some leeway, it might make sense for you to wait 3 to 6 months for rates to drop by a significant amount (0.5% or more).
In the United States, home prices were at their lowest from December to February, with January usually being the lowest month. According to NAR seasonal data, prices during these winter months are about 16% lower than they were at their highest point in June. But the prices of things can change a lot depending on where you are and what the weather is like. The prices in Arizona and Florida, which are warmer than the national average, may not change as much from season to season. In northern markets with harsh winters, seasonal price differences are often more noticeable. Prices are also good in the fall (October to November) because sellers want to sell before the holidays, but they aren't as low as prices in the middle of winter. In many cases, seasonal price patterns are more affected by local market conditions, inventory levels, and regional economic conditions than by national trends.
In most cases, you should plan to stay for at least three to five years to make buying a home worth it. When you buy or sell a home, the costs of the transaction (agent commissions, closing costs, moving costs) usually add up to 8–10% of the home's value. You need to see a lot of growth over the next few years just to break even on these big costs. Also, in the first few years of your mortgage, most of your payment goes toward interest instead of principal, so you don't build up equity very quickly at first. If you aren't sure about your job, life situation, or plans for where you want to live in the next 2–3 years, it might be better to rent than to buy. The 3–5 year rule is the bare minimum, but 7–10 years is the best time to get the most financial benefits from owning a home and building equity.
Overall, fall and winter are the best times for first-time buyers. Many buyers put their search on hold for the holidays and the end of the year, which makes competition much lower. Sellers are more willing to negotiate on price and terms before bringing properties into the new year. Days on the market go up, which gives you more time to carefully look at properties without making bad decisions too quickly. Real estate agents have more time to help you through the process step by step. However, because of limited inventory during these times, you will need to be very patient. In the spring and summer, there are many more options, but there is also a lot of competition from repeat buyers with bigger down payments and cash buyers. First and foremost, make sure you're financially ready. If you can be flexible, then think about the best time for fall and winter.
When rates go up, your monthly payment for the same loan amount goes up, which makes it much less affordable. For instance, if you have a $400,000 loan and the interest rate goes up from 6% to 7%, your monthly payment goes up by about $240. That's $2,880 a year or $86,400 over 30 years. Depending on the loan program, most lenders limit your total monthly housing costs to 28% to 36% of your gross income. With higher rates, you pay less on the loan principal and more on the interest, which means you can afford a lower-priced home with the same income. If rates are going up quickly, getting preapproved and locking in a rate right away will keep you from having to pay more while you look for a home. AmeriSave can help you lock in your current rates for 30 to 90 days, giving you time to look for properties.
A lot of this depends on the state of your local market and your own situation. If your market is clearly cooling down (more inventory, longer days on the market, and frequent price drops), it might be worth waiting 3–6 months to see if better deals come up. But it's very hard to guess when the market will change, and you could end up with higher rates or prices that keep going up even though other signs say they should cool down. If you can afford it right now, buying now will start building your equity right away instead of paying rent. Keep in mind that even if the national trends change, housing markets in areas with limited supply can stay "sellers' markets" for years. Don't put off doing something until the conditions are perfect, because they might never happen. No matter what the headlines say about the market being "hot" or "cool," you should buy when you're ready and can afford the home you really need.
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